Earthscan Sustainability 2

Earthscan recently held a conference in London 'Does Sustainability need an update?'

Brilliant speech by Professor Bill Adams - available as a video download - really recommend it.

Watch the video here

Climate Safety

This new report from the Public Interest Research Centre brings the science of climate change up to date since the publication of the IPCC AR4 reports - although these were only published last year they were based on peer reviewed science which was 5 years old. Climate Safety updates - particularly on Arctic Ice Melt and carbon sink effectiveness.

Their report can be downloaded here.

The foreword is written by Sir John Houghton - co-chair of the IPCC and former DG of the Met Office. He states "I wish to commend the authors of the Climate Safety report for their carefully researched assessment of the climate future, the severity of its likely impacts as currently understood and the urgent demands that are made on both global and national action. They point out the 2°C target as currently pursued will almost certainly turn out to be inadequate and will soon need to be substantially strengthened."

The main conclusion of the report is that as climate change is occurring much quicker than originally predicted, in order to maintain global temperature increases below 2 degrees C CO2 levels will have to be stabilised at 300ppm and not the 450-550ppm recommended by the Committee on Climate Change or in the Stern Report.

The report concludes with a series of required actions.

An important read.

Mark Lynas - author of Six Degree said the following of the report “Climate Safety plainly shows us that we need to inject a sense of urgency into the debate about how we respond to climate change. It’s not about gradually reducing emissions any more, it’s about recognising the risks we face and cutting our emissions to zero as quickly as possible.”

George Monbiot, Guardian columnist said “You cannot overstate the importance of this report: it has opened my eyes to levels of climate risk far beyond those of which I was aware. Crisp, clear-headed and profoundly shocking, this report should be read immediately by everyone who cares.”

80% by 2050 - legal assent

80% by 2050 is now legally binding! The Climate Change Bill received Royal Assent on the 1st Dec.. The Climate Change Committee has been set up to over see monitoring - they have have new web site - see here.

The CCC have recommended a 34% (cf 1990) cut in CO2 emissions by 2020 - see their press release here.

In addition they have published a huge document on creating a low carbon economy based on the new legislation. This is clearly and important document which I have yet to read - it is downloadable here.

This is important stuff - visit the web site - 34% cuts in CO2 in 12 years time is a stiff target which can only be achieved by major change

One Shot Left

George Monbiot's latest offering in the Guardian is the most gloomy thing I have read about climate change ever

He has based his conclusions on the recent findings of Jim Hansen the NASA climate specialist. Hansen assets that 350ppm is the safe level of CO2 in the atmosphere (we are currently above 380ppm) and anything above that could lead to rapid catastrophic climate change across the globe.

Monbiot also refers to the work of the Public Interest Research Centre who are holding a conference on the topic on Thursday 27th Nov.

The science has moved on rapidly from the 2007 IPCC reports, ice sheets melting much more rapidly, methane venting from the tundra etc etc etc.

It is obviously time to act (80% by 2050) but have we left it too late.......

Gloomy, Monbiot, may be but One Shot Left is essential reading.

National Parks and the National Trust in the uplands

There have been two stories recently in the media regarding the uplands and peat.

National Parks have expressed major concerns about how the changes in funding to farmers is threatening livelihoods and will have a disastrous impact on nature, tourism, water supplies and even climate. These comments follow on from a report published by Exeter University on Hill Farming Systems in South West England: economic viability and the delivery of public good commissioned by Dartmoor & Exmoor National Park Authorities.

If agricultural collapses in the uplands there is a large concern that we will be unable to manage our peatlands which are acting as massive carbon stores and sinks.

Fred Worrall, a leading peat researcher based at Durham University, said the ideal carbon moorland sink is a pristine lawn of sphagnum moss untouched by sheep or cattle or horses. But as areas like Dartmoor have been grazed for thousands of years, such landscapes are very rare.

If sheep or cattle were removed from all upland, Worrall said, perfect moss would not suddenly appear. Instead shrubby vegetation and birch woods would spring up. This has already happened in some parts of Dartmoor. Such vegetation would make the peat dry out – and lose its effectiveness as a carbon sink.

So Worrall says that the grazing of some sheep and cattle is a good thing. But the problem is nobody knows quite how many sheep or cattle would be ideal.

Secondly the National Trust have just celebrated the 10th Anniversary of the acquisition of Hafod y Llan, a 4,000 acres hill farm in Snowdonia, following a hugely successful fundraising appeal.

Iwan Huws Director in Wales for the National Trust said 'The uplands are particularly rich in natural resources and much loved by the public. But the role of hill farms in managing these assets is largely unrecognised. With the right investment, these farms could be rewarded for their important contribution to our wildlife as well as the management of the finite resources such as water and soil, which will benefit us all.'

He continued 'Ten years ago any notion that hill farmers would farm for water or for carbon would have been dismissed as fantasy. But with the pressures of a changing climate and the need to protect and value our natural capital, the future of hill farming will focus on a mixture of food production and providing wider environmental benefits for society.'

Peak oil and Local Authorities

Oil Depletion Analysis Centre and the Post carbon Institute have produced a useful booklet entitled Prearing for Peak oil: local authorities and the energy crisis. It can be download free of charge from here.

The book has been reviewed by Rob Hopkins on the Transition Culture website.

350

350 is a US based campaign to get our CO2 emissions to 350 ppm - the level this campaign feels will ensure a sustainable life on earth.

Read thier website - can you disagree?

We are currently at 387ppm - politicians state that 450 ppm will be OK.

Current global economic policies if unchanged will take us to 800ppm.

Irreversible climate change is likely to occur between 35--450-550 ppm.

The precautionary principle? or Russian Roulette? Its up to us.

Happy 2nd birthday Bovey Climate Action

Congratulations to Bovey Climate Action on their second birthday. Held tonight in the Parish Church this was a well attended do with around 200 people present.

Two prominent speakers gave presentations: Rosie Boycott, (former Editor of the Independent, the Independent on Sunday and the Daily Express), the recently appointed London Food Czar an Somerset farmer and Tim Smit Chief Executive and driving force behind the Eden Project (Heligan gardener, song writer and record producer.

Both gave deeply personal accounts of their commitment to the environment - an evening not to be be missed. It followed on from a very impressive First Birthday Party where Jonathon Porritt and Mark Lynas were guest speakers. Both also sent good luck messages for tonight's celebrations.

BCA has made good progress on a number of fronts: energy, food, transport and engagement - it is a model transition town initiative.

If you live in Bovey Tracey - get involved - if you don't get involved in something local to you.

I work for the National Trust in Bovey Tracey at Parke and we are developing a new partnership project with BCA over the management and community use of the Trust's currently unused Walled Garden. It was really heartening tonight that when it was announced that this partnership had been formalised a spontaneous round of applause rang out around the Church - thanks BCA.

Next year BCA is going to focus its attention on lobbying - particularly the 350 campaign. Get involved and support - lobbying isn't party political - its about our future - so go for it

Methane levels up -but why?

There is a useful information article on the Carbon Commentary web site on rising methane levels.

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and recent research has shown that it is rising in concentration in the atmosphere.

Research from Royal Holloway College indicated that methane levels were higher over the Arctic leading to the hypothesis that the rising levels were being caused by rotting biological matter in the tundra arising from melting ice.

However more recent work from MIT has shown that methane levels have rising across the globe and not just in the Arctic.

This is important because methane plays a key role in the climate change models and at the moment we don't know exactly why concentrations are increasing. Lets hope its not the start of the positive feedback loop - rising temperatures melt the tundra which releases methane and the eruption of methane from the deep oceans (the clathrate gun hypothesis)

For more details see here. Methane graph copyright of the NOAA

Save paper - don't press PRINT

Adharanand Finn in today's Guardian gives some tips on saving paper in the office and home - including the useful 'don't press the print button'.

In addition he mentions a computer programme Greenprint which analyses the document you are about to print and eliminates any unwanted or wasted pages.

In addition he champions the use of pdf files - these produce tidy presentable files that can be read on screen without the need to print them out. Abode Acrobat is the market leader obviously, but Cutepdf is a free alternative.

The Oil Crunch

The Oil Crunch is a report just published by 8 of the UK's leading companies (Virgin, Scottish and Southern Energy, Stagecoach, Arup, Foster and partners, Yahoo, First and Solarcentury).

In essence they believe that we face an imminent crisis arising from oil supply in the UK - this might occur as early as 2011. This is a quote from the Executive summary.

Currently, it seems to us, the government places climate change as first priority for policy making, followed by energy security, with peak oil (if it is viewed as a problem at all) in last place. In our view the more serious short-term climate-change impacts – substantial as they will be – will not be the first to wash over our economy. Peak-oil impacts are more likely to arrive first, with 2011-13 being a worryingly early candidate window based on the evidence in Opinion A. The core priorities we think the country faces are the reverse of the government’s current thinking.

This is a serious report with a foreword by Lord Oxburgh, former chair of Shell -

Currently, it seems to us, the government places climate change as first priority for policy making, followed by energy security, with peak oil(if it is viewed as a problem at all) in last place. In our view the more serious short-term climate-change impacts – substantial as they will be – will not be the first to wash over our economy. Peak-oil impacts are more likely to arrive first, with 2011-13 being a worryingly early candidate window based on the evidence in Opinion A. The core priorities we think the country faces are the reverse of the government’s current thinking.

The full report can be downloaded here. A summary from the Arp website can e viewed here and media report is contained in the Guardian.

For me this is one of the most worrying reports I have read - it is not written by environmentalists but by industrialists. They are basically saying that we have ignored the issue of peak oil and in all likelihood the inpacts will be felt in Britain within 5 years - we will be unprepared for the consequences.

What is the Transition Initiative?

A very important initiative that has sprung up in the south west in 2005 is the formation of the Transition Towns Initiative. A Transition Town can be best described as ‘a small collection of motivated individuals within a community who come together with a shared concern: how can the community respond to the challenges, and opportunities, of Peak Oil and Climate Change?’

The first Transition Town was set up in Totnes and today there are over 100 TTs around the world and over 600 who are ‘mulling over the idea’.

Transition Initiatives are based on four key assumptions:

• That life with dramatically lower energy consumption is inevitable, and that it is better to plan for it than to be taken by surprise
• That our settlements and communities presently lack the resilience to enable them to weather the severe energy shocks that will accompany peak oil
• That we have to act collectively, and we have to act now
• That by unleashing the collective genius of those around us to creatively and proactively design our energy descent, we can build ways of living that are more connected, more enriching and that recognise the biological limits of our planet.

Full details can be found in The Transition Handbook – from oil dependency to local resilience. Rob Hopkins (2008) Green Books. Totnes.

The table above helps to define the Transition Initiative. There are also six underlying principles that underpin the Transition model which are encapsulated in an Energy Descent Plan. The six principles are:

1. Visioning – paint a future without oil where life has improved and developed
2. Inclusion – we need to include everyone – not just the ‘green’ ones
3. Awareness raising – if we are not all informed of peak oil and climate change we won’t act
4. Resilience – the changes ahead will be very challenging so our plans need to include solutions which will survive at the local level
5. Psychological insights – many of the barriers to finding solutions lie within our heads – psychology can help us overcome these
6. Credible and appropriate solutions – we need solutions which are of a scale, resilience and sustainability to solve the problem

In producing an Energy Descent Plan a scenario is agreed by the group, for example, as a community we must be oil independent by 2030 and we must cut our greenhouse gas emissions by 60% by 2030.

A vision is then drawn up to illustrate the community flourishing in 2030 have achieved the above objectives. The final part of the planning involves ‘back casting’ from the vision date to the present and ascribing a series of actions that will be required every year across the following areas of daily life to achieve the objectives:-

• Food
• Youth & Community
• Education
• Housing
• Economy and Livelihoods
• Health
• Tourism Transport
• Waste
• Energy
• Marine Resources

There is a worked example of an Energy Descent Plan from Kinsdale in Ireland – the first produced in the world.

Arctic ice is thinning

A team of scientists from University College London have discovered that the ice sheet around the Arctic is thinning - in places but up to 49cm. As a result the overall volume of ice is decreasing.


This data is on top of other data which has spectacularly shown that the ice sheet is decreasing in area.

More information here.

Austrialian 'Stern' Report - gloom and doom

A report in Australia by economist Ross Garnaut billed as the Australian Stern Report states that carbon pollution levels are rising so fast that the world has no realistic chance of hitting ambitious climate targets set by Britain and the G8.

Since 2000, the Garnaut report says, global carbon emissions from fossil fuel use have grown by 3% each year, as economies of developing countries including China have boomed. This compares to annual growth rates of 2% through the 1970s and 1980s, and just 1% in the 1990s.

See the Guardian for further details

80% by 2050 to include aviation and shipping

Ed Miliband has agreed with environmental campaigners that the Climate Change Bill targets suggested by the Committee on Climate Change and agreed by the Government - see here should also include emissions from aviation and shipping.

Full details in today's Guardian.

This is amazing stuff - the speed that such huge cuts have been agreed and the 'ease' with which shipping and aviation has now been included almost implies 'they' know something we don't .....!

Richard Heinberg’s The Party’s over oil, war and the fate of industrial societies

Well , I’ve finally got around to reading this book. I have been aware of the message for a long time but I can say it has really been worth while reading the detail.

In essence the book warns that oil production is about to peak and as a result massive changes will reverberate throughout the world. Indeed the future of industrialisation and globalisation is unsustainable.

The book is divided into 6 chapters.

Chapter 1 reviews the laws of physics, energy in ecology and the role of energy in former dominant civilisations. The key point in the latter example is that that former civilisations (e.g. Myas, Minoans, Greeks & Romans) collapsed because their energy budgets collapsed.

Chapter 2 looks at the rise of energy use from medieval times to the present - the rise of wood through coal to oil.

Chapter 3 describes the concept of peak oil – i.e. oil is a non –renewable resource . It details the work of Hubbert and describes why his work is so important.

Chapter 4 assesses whether renewable sources of energy can replace the oil based alternatives – they can’t and the book describes why.

Chapter 5 entitled “A banquet of consequences” describes what the impacts on modern society of the peaking of oil. It is profoundly and deeply worrying.

Chapter 6 is a much more positive piece of writing giving hope of what can be done at the individual, community and national levels in preparing for the transition from oil to renewables and a different lifestyle.

The book is a really important contribution to the changes society needs to make in the light of diminishing oil resources. It is a useful additional information source to the bulk of climate change literature. It makes it plain that climate change policy cannot be seen in isolation from peak oil issues.

This book is in no large part responsible for the Transition Movement in the UK which started in Totnes, Devon earlier this century.

The book is a brilliant analysis of politics, geopolitics, geology, sociology, ecology and economics. Essential reading – I urge you to read it and get your elected politicians and senior managers to do the same.

Ed Milliband signs up to the Committee on Climate Change

The Government has signed up to the 80% cuts in CO2 by 2050 recommended by the Committee on Climate Change. This is excellent news and has received widespread praise.

There is however some concern being voiced that shipping and aviation have been excluded from these targets. No doubt this battle will continue. For more details see here.

Shifting Shores in the south west

The National Trust has just published this update report on its Shifting Shores campaign - the threats to our coast from climate change, sea level rise and increasing stormy weather . Both this report and the earlier national report can be downloaded from here.

The new report outlines lessons learnt already from work that the Trust has carried out. There are 5 critical messages.

1. Long term planning is essential
2. Work with nature not against it
3. Think and act in the wider context
4. Solutions need partnerships
5. Involving the public is critical.

The report also details 21 NT sites in the SW that are threatened by sea level rise. The report also poses 4 questions that need to be addressed.

1. How can people's awareness and understanding of the risks they face be raised?
2. What is the best way to decide the most sustainable approach to managing these risks?
3. How should tomorrow's coastline be managed today?
4. How can the costs of adaption be minimised and shared equitably?

Finally the report carries out an impact assessment covering

The impact on wildlife
The impact on the historic environment
The impact on the coastal economy
The impact on public access to the coast.

From Souce to Sea

A new report from the National Trust suggests that we are ill equipped to the deal with the extremes of weather emanating from climate change that will lead to more flooding and drought events around the country.

The full report can be downloaded from here.

One of the recommendations suggests that we should be funding farmers to manage flood plains as flood plains so as to reduce the impacts of flooding downstream.

One of the case studies is at Wicken Fen where such an approach is being implemented. The Wicken Fen Vision is also bringing huge biodiversity, landscape, access and carbon sequestration benefits.

Committee on Climate Change

The title of this blog is coming true.

The Committee on Climate Change has made its first pronouncement on how the country / government should implement the Climate Change Bill.

Headed up by Lord Adair Turner they have said that the country needs to cut emissions by at least 80% by 2050. In addition they have said we need to have stopped using fossil fuels completely within 20 years.

These targets should also apply to shipping and aviation.

Amazing - ok, saying it is easier than doing it but it is a fantastic start. There are some really difficult decisions just ahead of us - a third runway for London? - a coal fired power station in Kent? - a barrage for the Severn?

This tied in with appointment of Ed Milliband in the new Department of Energy and Climate is for me a real ray of hope in the often depressing world of climate change politics.

All we have to do now is turn the Climate Change Bill into an Act of Parliament - a job for November

Bee keepers - Feeding bees - beware

The following is from an email from the Wiltshire Bee keepers Association

SILVER SPOON BEET SUGAR compared to SILVER SPOON CANE SUGAR

It is reported that neonicotinoid pesticides are being widely used in the spraying of English sugar beet crops. If you plan to feed sugar syrup to your bees this autumn then you might want to check that the sugar you are using is cane sugar and not beet sugar, at least until such time as this latest pesticide concern has been further investigated.

Neonicotinoids have been widely blamed for killing huge numbers of bees and may well be a significant contributory factor to CCD, if not the cause.

Part 2
Several people have asked me for more information about neonicotinoidpesticides and how to avoid them. Google will reveal extensive informationon this topic, and to save you some time, I have compiled some of the moreuseful-looking material into a library at http://www.biobees.com/library/?dir=pesticides_GM_threats - feel free todownload anything from here.

A number of people have asked if they should use organically grown sugar. As a supporter of organic farming, I would love to say an unequivocal 'yes', but apart from the considerable extra cost, I have yet to see any really'white' organic sugar - it always seems to have a slightly brown tinge,which may indicate the presence of residues that may cause digestiveproblems to the bees. I don't know the answer to this one, but whenconsidering feed, we have to remember that we are trying to mimic nectar,which essentially comprises sucrose, glucose and fructose in variedproportions, plus a sprinkling of trace minerals. Refined, white cane sugarmay be as close as we can get at reasonable cost.

Finally, consider this warning from a German beekeeper, in a statement tothe Apimondia gathering in Freiburg. (Clothianidin is another neonicotinoid,closely related to Imidacloprid):"In Germany clothianidin is used since 2004. It is used as seed protectionfor sugar beets and corn. As well as for fumigation of barns and stables. Itaccrues as decomposition product of other pesticides.Already in some regions the concentration in the soil is that high, thatbee-keeping is not possible any more in such regions. It's alarming thatbutter-flies, hoverflies, chrysopids and many other beneficial insects areeliminated or respectively almost eliminated."Read the full text here: http://www.biobees.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1711

There is a growing movement to have the neonicotinoids banned in the UK, asis the case in several other European countries. They are extremelydangerous to bees and all other insects, and thus the birds and otheranimals that rely on insects for food. I urge you to take this threatseriously: only by acting in unison can we counteract the massive financialvested interests behind the promotion of these poisons.

Food's carbon footprint

There is an excellent article in the current issue of New Scientist on the carbon footprint of food - Dinner's Dirty Secret.

Using research mainly from the States the report reveals that greenhouse gas emissions from food account for twice that from travel (8.1 tonnes pa compared to 4.4 tonnes pa per average US household).

Switching to a vegetarian diet from meat would save 1.5 tonnes of CO2 pa per person.

On average consuming organic food compared to conventional food produces only 77% of the greenhouse gases.

When it comes to the debate over whether it is better to eat wild or farmed fish the debate is more complex. However the world's fishing fleet uses 1.2% of global oil consumption (along with over fishing) and the emissions from this are equivalent to the Netherlands annual emissions. However farmed fish requires fish meal is is energy intensive to produce and can cause pollution.

Finally the report addresses whether local food is really green. Their conclusion is controversial - local food only reduces CO2 emissions by4%. However if wider factors are taken into account e.g. the need to prepare for an oil free world (peak oil / transition movement debates) then local food will be a major advantage.

So putting all this together, means that by changing our diets (particularly in the West) we can substantially reduce our carbon footprint. If we assume that the average family is 2.2 people - then by converting to being an 'organic vegetarian' who buys locally the 8.1 tonnes per average family can be cut to 2.6 tonnes - an overall reduction of 68%.

Food for thought!

Old growth forests as carbon sinks

The traditional wisdom (see papers here) has been that forests sequester CO2 from the atmosphere during their active growing phases (up to year 80 in most broadleaf species) but once maturity has been reached CO2 is no longer absorbed but simply stored.

Now a paper has been published in Nature (2008) which shows that old growth forests accumulate carbon over the centuries not just the active growth phase.

30% of the planet's surface is covered by old growth forests and this research suggests that between 0.8 and 1.8 billion tonnes of CO2 is stored annually.

These forests were also excluded from calculations in the Kyoto protocol. It is now clear that ancient forest sinks need to be included in carbon balance calculations.

It doesn't mean than ancient forests will save us from catastrophic climate change - it does mean that if we don't protect them properly even more CO2 will be released into the atmosphere than we originally thought.

Why is the current weather out of kilter with climate change predictions

The UKCIP climate prediction model for Devon suggests that by 2080 summer temperatures will have risen by 4.5 degrees and summer rain will have declined by 52%.

This seems to make no sense when we have just had two summers of exceptional rain accompanied by lower summer temperatures.

Although this contradiction is not fully understood it is tied in with the jet stream. This is a high level stream of air which affects the weather in Western Europe. In normal years the jet stream comes in from North American crosses the Atlantic at around 12km and ends up in Scandinavia and Iceland and with it brings wet cool weather.

The reason Britain has been so wet over the last two summers is because the jet stream has been forced south and instead of the wet summer weather going to Iceland it has ended up here.

It is thought that one of the major reasons that the jet stream has been pushed south is due to a phenomenon occuring in the Pacific La Nina. This is part of the ocean atmosphere phenomenon known as El Nino. El Nino has two phases La Nina and El Nino - we are currently in the later phase and it is thought that once it switches back to La Nina the jet stream will head north once again.

When El Nino is prevalent heavy rain is experienced in South America, when itis reversed to La Nina then heavy rain is experienced further afield. For more details see the BBC Weather Centre.

British Sea Power

The Guardian recently published an article about a new type of underwater tidal power electricity generator being developed by a team from Oxford University.

The new turbine will be around 60m by 10m and if sited in the right place around the coast could generate 12Mw of power - enough to supply energy for 12,000 homes.

A much better and less environmentally threatening idea than a barrage across the Severn?

The hurricane season

The Caribbean and the US are currently being threatened by a tightly packed series of hurricanes and tropical storms. New Orleans has just narrowly escaped a further catastrophe, but the current storms are still massing in the Gulf of Mexico.

A recently published paper in Nature by Professor Elsner concludes that warming oceans are driving stronger hurricanes. In a 2007 Nature paper he concluded that climate change was also increasing the frequency of hurricanes.

The recent hurricane even affected the Democratic Convention where one of the debating topics was the call for increased off shore oil drilling. Ironic in a week when the price of oil dropped significantly because the off shore drilling rigs already in operation in the Gulf of Mexico were spared damage by the hurricane.

Peak oil will cause dramatic oil price hikes - the increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico will cause the same phenomena

Locals oppose wind farm on Bodmin Moor

150 people has attended a public meeting at Davidstowe on Bodmin Moor opposing a proposed wind farm. 20 125m turbines are planned making it the biggest windfarm in Cornwall.

Opponents say it will affect wildlife.

The problem is that climate change will affect wildlife too....

Each Briton uses 4,645 litres a day when hidden factors are included

The new report from WWF states that each UK citizen consumes over 4500 litres of water if hidden factors are taken into account. Conventional wisdom suggests that we (in the UK) use 150 litres a day - but this figures is 30 times too small if we take 'virtual' water into account.

Virtual water includes the amount of water used to produce the amount of water needed to produce imported goods we utilise. See the Guardian for further details.

Fred Pearce in his excellent book When the Rivers Run Dry covers this topics in some detail.

Our use of virtual / imported water mirrors our 'use' of of CO2 - we are an importing nation so we need to take account of our impact on water consumption and CO2 emissions in other nation nations around the world. The water used in producing oranges in Israel which we then consume in Britain are our problem. Likewise the CO2 emissions emitted manufacturing cars overseas and producing consumers goods, in say, China, are also our problem.

See the following WWF link for details of the report. The full report can also be download ed from here.

UK emissions have risen not fallen

The assumptions in the Kyoto Protocol used to calculate carbon emissions do not include emissions from air travel, shipping or goods imported into the UK for our consumption (so called embedded carbon) . Under the Kyoto agreement, according to the Government we have seen a 5% decrease in UK emissions since 1990.

However a new report from the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) has recalculated UK emissions taking air, shipping and embedded carbon into account. When this is done emissions have risen by 18%.

This makes much more sense! The 5% cut was largely attributable to the switch from coal to gas in electricity generation. The 18% rise as measured by the SEI ties in neatly with our love of consumerism and cheap air travel.

Depressing OK, but at least now we can measures what the 80% cut in emissions required needs to be measured against.

Can Britain feed itself?

Excellent article from Land Magazine on this very topic - press here for a download.

This article is an update of paper written by Kenneth Melamby in 1975. It was published in the Land which is an excellent magazine.

A positive upbeat article - life under peak oil and climate change will be very different but we are not necessarily doomed!

Also see the Ecologist about how to feed ourselves organically

Don't let the GM lot fool you.

Peak oil theory in the main stream

New Scientist Magazine (28th June 2008) contains a six page article on peak oil and the consequences. Well worth a read. First time I have seen a peak oil in the 'main stream' opposed to green magazines.

When will it filter through into policy? Maybe government cant cope with climate change and peak oil at the same time?

Biofuels caused food price rise - official

Secret World Bank report says that the rise in biofuel production led to world food shortage earlier this year along with the steep price rises.

See this link for further details

Time for a major rethink surely and that rethink must include the point that we need to change our behaviour to use less fuel not just find substitues for oil which make the poor hungry.

The Transition Handbook

New book just published! By Rob Hopkins, co founder of the Transition Towns Network and founder of Transition Town Totnes.

At first glance this looks excellent. £12.95 RRP or from Amazon.

Poor old turbine!

The wrong kind of wind?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcrO4USqRfo

Measuring the UK's greenhouse gas emissions

A new report from the National Audit Office has suggested that greenhouse gas emissions might be 12% higher than reported because DEFRA has used two different accounting systems.

The system the government uses to report to the UN (which shows a cut in greenhouse gases) shows the UK emitted 656m tonnes of CO2 in 2005.

The more accurate and more up to date system (which shows a rise in greenhouse gases) shows the UK emitted 733m tonnes of CO2 in 2005

Down load the report here.

Surely if emissions are rising we need to be honest about it and then amend policy accordingly?

The Secretary of State Hilary Benn responds - you decide if enough is being done.

Nature's capital - National Trust report on land management, climate change and flooding

A new National Trust report highlights the importance of land management in addressing climate change and flooding.

A new report published by the National Trust today – Nature's Capital – urges the public and private sector to invest new money in helping to deliver major public benefits from land, including reduced risk of flooding and tackling climate change.

Recommendations in the report are based on the Trust’s own practical experience as the largest non-governmental landowner in the UK, managing over 250,000 hectares.
Investment now will save public money later in tackling the problems of climate change, flooding, water pollution and poor health.

The report contains four key recommendations for action:

The water industry should invest in land management to improve the quality of drinking water at source.Nearly two billion pounds has been spent in the last five years on an energy intensive treatment process to make drinking water quality acceptable for consumers. This needs to change and there is a need to tackle the problem at source. A partnership of public, private and voluntary organisations has been working together in the Peak District to tackle the causes of peat degradation which impacts upon water quality. The project will ultimately reduce the need for expensive water treatment.

More of the Government’s £800m flood risk budget should be spent on managing land in a way that makes space for water rather than just spending the money on hard engineering and flood defence.This change of policy would then help to reduce the risk of floods downstream and take into account the impact of climate change and the affects of extreme weather as seen in Gloucestershire and Yorkshire in the summer of 2007. A joint project between the National Trust, Environment Agency and University of Durham at Upper Wharfedale in Yorkshire is seeking to create space for water and tackle the problem of flash flooding via wetland creation and soft engineering.

Extend the use of carbon markets to provide financial incentives for investment in land based carbon, such as peat bogs, to reduce losses of carbon from soil.Over 10 billion tonnes of carbon is estimated to be stored in UK soil – equivalent to around a year and a half of global greenhouse gas emissions - and the peatlands are the single largest store of carbon in the UK. A carbon audit at the National Trust’s Wallington Estate in Northumberland is assessing the amount of carbon stored in its soil and biomass and how much is emitted through day to day operations. An essential part of this project will be to restore and conserve the carbon banks.

There is a need for more NHS and Primary Care Trust funding to be allocated for green exercise prescriptions in the outdoors.This would help get more people out into their local green spaces to tackle obesity and improve their health and well-being. At the National Trust’s Clumber Park in Nottinghamshire the local council and health authorities have been prescribing healthy walking to help tackle the obesity problems in the East Midlands.

Tony Burton, Director of Policy and Strategy at the National Trust, said:
'With a changing climate and rising demands for new built development, the pressure on land is increasing. We need to harness new sources of investment and new partnerships to realise the potential of our land to help tackle flooding, climate change and the supply of clean water and green spaces for the benefit of us all.'

The Green Budget!

Ho hum - lots of mixed messages but perhaps some indications of future actions?

Darling suggested that the Climate Change Bill would probably have to 'recommend' 80% CO2 cuts by 2050 rather than the published 60% cuts. Good stuff but ...

how to achieve 80% cuts?

• defer the fuel escalator - well, no that wont help....
• promote more new roads - well, no that wont help....
• promote new runways at Heathrow and Stanstead - well, no that wont help....

On the positive side increased tax tax for gas guzzlers
and positive noises about carbon neutral homes

and of course the plastics bags! If supermarkets don't reduce plastic bag then the government will legislate.

In order to cut emissions by 80% its going to need more than a plastic bags ban surely?

Organic milk and carbon emissions

A litre of 'ordinary' milk takes over three times as much energy to produce than a litre of organic milk. Much of this extra energy is used in the production of fertiliser. So next time you're at the shops, opt for organic.

Thanks Friends of the Earth Tip of the Day

Six degrees videos

I recommended Mark Lynas' book Six Degrees in an earlier blog.

Mark has now teamed up with National Geographic Magazine in the States to produce a website along with a series of summary videos of the 6 degrees message. Six individual videos have been produced featuring Mark Lynas and NASA scientist James Hansen. Each video is featured below.

One degree
Two degrees
Three degrees
Four degrees
Five degrees
Six degrees

Good stuff Mark - its all about dripping water on the stone.

New coal fired power station - surely not?

"Climate change activists are to target the site of the proposed new coal-fired power station with a week-long camp in Kent this summer, organisers announced today.

The Camp for Climate Action will be held from August 4-11 at the site of Kingsnorth in Kent, where German energy company E.On is proposing to build the country's first new coal-fired power station in 30 years." reports the Guardian - surely the Government will block this - otherwise our climate change policy is in tatters?

Where is Swampy - everyone look for swampy - we need him more than ever!

Train, plane and bus tickets should show carbon footprint

Good idea - how else can we know the impact we are causing. The Guardian reported

"Plane and train tickets should reveal the environmental impact of individual journeys by stating the carbon emissions released on each trip, the UK's main professional body for engineers said yesterday.
The Institute of Mechanical Engineers said branding tickets according to their green credentials should be one of a series of measures the government should adopt, so that having a large carbon footprint became "as socially unacceptable as drink-driving".
In a report on sustainable transport, the body highlighted trains as one of the most environmentally benign ways to travel and put forward strategies to wean people away from travelling by car or plane, including extra fuel taxes, congestion charges and more aggressive road pricing.
For a 400-mile trip from London to Glasgow, the carbon dioxide emissions per passenger travelling by road are 80.2kg, compared with 133.7kg by air and 46.8kg by rail, the report said."

For further details see the IME

Very rude but pertinent

A Greenpeace viral about oil, US, UK energy policy.

Not for the easily offended though .....

http://www.feelfilms.co.uk/smiths/index.html

You have been warned

Water voles - oh dear oh dear

Water voles have received increased protection - good for certain, as they are definitely declining - but how is it as a society we can increase protection for water voles whilst ignoring the bigger issues of climate change?

Water voles need a climate too surely?

Food crisis

New government chief scientist Prof John Beddington is suggesting that food shortages will become an issue before the full impacts of climate change bite.

As the world population rises from 6 to 9 billion will the world be able to feed itself? How do biofuels fit into into this?

Watch out for Prof John Beddington - he is on the case! ...... I hope ....

Lets see if the biofuels policy changes ..... - it surely must

A great guy but too depressing

James Lovelock has said we have passed the tipping point so we are all doomed! or as he puts it - enjoy life while you can you can.

I can't accept this - if we act now WE WILL BE OK

Your choice - do nothing or something


SINK OR SWIM
BREATH or SUFFOCATE
SING OR HOWL

Lets see what the carbon weevils are up to

Forkbeard Fantasy - a Devon based Arts Group have recently toured with a production called Invisible Bonfires - the Carbon Weevils are part of the show.

Press here to view their 7 minute cartoon - excellent

Green taxes and government policy - its a ghetto out there

The House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee has published a major new report
The 2007 Pre–Budget Report and Comprehensive Spending Review: An environmental analysis

The report can be downloaded in full from here.

In summary the report concludes:-

environmental taxes as a proportion of all taxation peaked at 9.7% in 1999 and have declined ever since, falling to 7.3% in 2006

Overall, environmental issues appear to be ‘ghettoised’; the Treasury must do more to mainstream environmental policy by reflecting it more strongly throughout the entire range of PSAs.

Although the Pre-Budget Report and Comprehensive Spending Review were published a year after the Stern Review, there was little sign in them that the Treasury was responding on the scale and with the urgency Stern recommended. Furthermore, since the Stern Review was published the science on climate change has continued to harden, with global emissions rising faster than projected; thus the Treasury’s lack of urgency stands out as even more remiss. Pre-Budget Report 2008 must establish a coherent set of measures to help deliver the UK’s 2020 domestic and EU targets on emissions and renewable energy, and show explicitly what their planned contribution to this delivery will be.

Stop climate chaos

Stop Climate Chaos have an excellent website - visit it it now. Sign up to their campaigns

Are biofuels sustainable?

The House of Commons Environment Audit Committee today published an important report on biofuels asking 'Are biofuels sustainable?'

They gave a pretty resounding no in their report. The EU has a target to ensure that 10% of transport fuel comes from biofuels by 2020. The MPs have called for a moratorium on this target. See also 'The Problem with biofuels'.

Download the Report here

This is from the report's summary

"Biofuels can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from road transport—but most first generation biofuels have a detrimental impact on the environment overall. In addition, most biofuels are often not an effective use of bioenergy resources, in terms either of cutting greenhouse gas emissions or value-for-money. The Government must ensure that its biofuels policy balances greenhouse gas emission cuts with wider environmental impacts, so that biofuels are only used where they contribute to sustainable emissions reductions."

"The Government should seek to ensure that EU policy changes to reflect the concerns raised in this report. This means implementing a moratorium on current targets until technology improves, robust mechanisms to prevent damaging land use change are developed, and international sustainability standards are agreed. Only then might biofuels have a role to play. In the meantime, other more effective ways of cutting emissions from road transport should be pursued. It will take considerable courage for the Government and EU to admit that the current policy arrangements for biofuels are inappropriate. The policy realignments that are required will be a test of the Government’s commitment to moving the UK towards a sustainable low carbon economy."

RSPB's 20 tough climate change questions

The RSPB have published a document asking 20 questions relating to climate change and wildlife. It is a good effort and well worth a read.

It can be downloaded from here.

I have one problem with it - it is not up to speed on peak oil. The problem is not just to do with climate change, it is also do with the fact that oil will run out (or at least become very, very expensive) soon. The impacts of this will be equally as a great as the impacts of climate change.

See my earlier blog 'The end of oil'

Birds on the move

New RSPB report on the dramtic effects of climate change on our birds. Click here for the full report.

Don't just worry about climate change though - worry about peak oil too - the both are connected ...

Energy descent plans

In an earlier entry The End of Oil I described the concept of peak oil and Transition Towns.

One of the key concepts for Transition Towns is to produce an Energy descent Plan which hopefully prepare and allow the local community to live a low carbon life without being dependent on oil.

Such a plan has 6 core considerations

1. create a sense something is happening

2. Ask the right questions

3. Plan for the great re-skilling

4. Find new ways to engage people

5. Stress the new opportunities

6. Vision and backcast

Perhaps the best known Energy Descent Plan is the first one that was produced in Kinsdale, Ireland. You can download their Plan here. This will show how they have explained the 6 core considerations above and how that community is planning for a life without oil

The problems with biofuels

Biofuels, that is the production of oil replacements from plants, were seen a year or so ago as a product which would help us out of the climate change and peak oil crisis. Today the 'miracle cure' of biofuels is looking less and like like a magic bullet.

On the 14th January this year te Guardian carried an article - Biofuels may not deliver CO2 cuts scientists warn. This was based on a recent report by the Royal Society no less Sustainable biofuels challenges and prospects. The author of the report Professor John Pickett gave an interview about his report highlighting the issues and dangers.

In essence growing the wrong types of crop to produce biofuels may impact on biodiversity detrimentally and may take farmland used to produce food out of production (see the Guardian 4th Jan 08). We may end up with lots of fuel for our cars but end up living in a world with no nature and nothing to eat!

The UK, European and world policies on biofuels need really careful consideration and if we get the policy wrong we may end up in a worst position than we already find ourselves. BiofuelWatch is an excellent website which gives the global perspective.

Finally there is an excellent article in the current edition of Ecos on biofuels by Andrew Boswell of BiofuelWatch.

ECOS: Climate chaos - helping nature cope

ECOS is the quarterly journal of the British Association of Nature Conservationists. It is a pioneering thinktank on all matters related to wildlife nature biodiversity and people. It publishes ECOS, organises conferences, publishes books and runs a blog.

The latest issues of ECOS vol 28 issues 3/4 is dedicated to the theme of climate change. The contents page can be found here.

Join BANC if you are interested in thought provoking nature conservation!

One Planet Agriculture

The Soil Association organised a conference last year entitled One Planet Agriculture. It highlighted modern agriculture's total dependence on oil - from plot to plate.

The speakers make the link between peak oil and agriculture and stress thye need for far reaching the speedy change. Although little discussed in the media this has got to be the biggest topic of our times - how will we feed ourselves and how will we have to live when the oil runs out.

Frightening yes but if we successfully make the transition then our lives will be more sustainable, more closely linked to the earth and there is no reason why we shouldn't be happier.

The change is a big ask though ......

Four articles summarising the issues can be downloaded here

UK Climate Change data - UKCIP

The UK Climate Climate Impact Programme
This is the web site for the definitive data set for climate change in the UK - includes regional data for Devon and Cornwall

Southwest Environement Home Page

A massive resource - I use it almost daily - you will find it useful - add it to your your favourites

The impacts of climate change in Devon and Cornwall

This web site gives you are all the information you need to to know about climate change in Devon and Cornwall - it is essential reading. Download 'Warming to the Idea' from here

The end of oil?

Everybody knows that one day we will run out of oil. The trouble is that the consequences for society will happen far sooner than the time when the last drop of the stuff has been used up.

The theory of Peak Oil states that once peak (or maximum) production levels of oil has been reached the price of oil will rise dramatically causing untold economic problems for the world. This is simply the basic laws of supply and demand. Demand for oil is ever increasing especially as the 'developing' world is becoming more 'Westernised'. Many oil economists now saw we have reached 'peak oil' i.e. from now on the rate of oil production will decline.

There is compelling evidence that peak oil is either happening or will happen in the next few years. This is a big big problem. Demand is massively increasing whilst supply will start (or has started) to decrease. The result is escalating oil prices and detrimentally impacted economies.

I hear you say now we have to worry about peak oil and climate change - well the two are inextricably linked - it is the burning of all the oil and gas that has caused climate change!

If you want to read up more about peak oil there are loads of web sites and books - I can recommend the following:-

Web sites

The wolf at the door

The Hubbert Peak for World Oil

The Coming Global Oil Crisis

Books

Beyond Oil

The Party's over

However I really believe that the end of world is NOT nigh - we can do something about it if we act now. For example the Transition Movement is a grass roots movement actively trying to address these problems by planning for a future without oil. There are Transition Towns, counties and indeed countries working on this right now - so join in!!

We Transition Penwith as a good example of how you can take control rather than just being a victim.

I really recommend that you do join in because the UK is particularly vulnerable - North Sea Oil has already peaked and being an island means we are on the end of the supply train. Some say the economic and political impact will have bitten really deep in Britain by 2020 - the lights may have started to go out by then .....

Shifting shores

In Devon and Cornwall the National Trust owns about 1/3 of the coastline. As a result rising seas levels and increased storminess is a big issue. The policy document Shifting Shores gives a good policy position about how the Trust is addressing this issue

Forecast changeable

This National Trust document (available as a download from here) gives a very good summary of the possible impacts of climate change on a range National Trust activities.

It is a very good read and as well as telling you a lot about what the Trust is thinking it will help you think about the diverse range of impacts that you and your business might face.

Low energy light bulbs

This Greenpeace viral should amuse you

Woodlands, trees and climate change

If you want to understand the role that trees, woodlands and new plantings can have in combating climate change Mark Broadmeadow is your man. Mark is a research sceintist for the Forestry Commission and has published a number of important papers on this topic.

A list of some of his dowloadable publications can be found here.

I recommend the following:-

Climate Change and British Woodlands - fcin069 [1].pdf

Forests, carbon and climate change: the UK contribution - fcin048.pdf

Climate Change - implications for forestry in Britain

All these papers are downloadable foc from the above link. They are all scientific papers so put aside couple of hours to digest them - you wont regret it though. You will understand the carbon cycle, which tree species are at risk as a result of climate change and why cutting down trees and burning them is carbon neutral. Essential reading if you are into biofuel boilers for example!