The Political Ecology of Collapse

John Michael Greer is a great writer about the post industrial era. He has put a three part essay on his blog - The Political Ecology of Collapse - well worth reading

Failure is the only option (part 1)
Weishaupt’s Fallacy (part 2)
The Bomb at the Heart of the System (part 3)

He has also written a couple of great books
The Long Descent
and
Ecotechnic future

The story of the Red Carpet Four

Greenpeace Copenhagen video

Dance for the Climate

This is really uplifting .....

In August 2009 over 10,000 people danced for the climate on the Ostend Beach in Belgium.

Rob Hopkins introduces the Transition Movement

15 minute introduction to the ideas behind the Transition Movement - well worth the time.

Copenhagen diagnosis

This new report has been produced ahead of the Copenhagen climate meeting in December to update politicians and the media on climate science that has been published since the IPCC (AR4) report in 2006. You can download the report here. The most significant recent climate change findings are:

Surging greenhouse gas emissions: Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were nearly 40% higher than those in 1990. Even if global emission rates are stabilized at present-day levels, just 20 more years of emissions would give a 25% probability that warming exceeds 2°C, even with zero emissions after 2030. Every year of delayed action increases the
chances of exceeding 2°C warming.

Recent global temperatures demonstrate human-induced warming: Over the past 25 years temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.19°C per decade, in very good agreement with predictions based on greenhouse gas increases. Even over the past ten years, despite a decrease in solar forcing, the trend continues to be one of warming. Natural, short-term fluctuations are
occurring as usual, but there have been no significant changes in the underlying warming trend.

Acceleration of melting of ice-sheets, glaciers and ice-caps: A wide array of satellite and ice measurements now demonstrate beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and ice-caps in other parts of the world has also accelerated since 1990.

Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline: Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models. The area of sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models.

Current sea-level rise underestimated: Satellites show recent global average sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past 15 years) to be ~80% above past IPCC predictions. This acceleration in sea-level rise is consistent with a doubling in contribution from melting of glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice-sheets.

Sea-level predictions revised: By 2100, global sea-level is likely to rise at least twice as much as projected by Working Group 1 of the IPCC AR4; for unmitigated emissions it may well exceed 1 meter. The upper limit has been estimated as ~ 2 meters sea level rise by 2100. Sea level will continue to rise for centuries after global temperatures have been stabilized, and several meters of sea level rise must be expected over the next few centuries.

Delay in action risks irreversible damage: Several vulnerable elements in the climate system (e.g. continental ice-sheets, Amazon rainforest, West African monsoon and others) could be pushed towards abrupt or irreversible change if warming continues in a business-as-usual way throughout this century. The risk of transgressing critical thresholds (“tipping points”)
increases strongly with ongoing climate change. Thus waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized.

The turning point must come soon: If global warming is to be limited to a maximum of 2 °C above pre-industrial values, global emissions need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly. To stabilize climate, a decarbonized global society – with near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases – needs to be reached well within this century. More
specifically, the average annual per-capita emissions will have to shrink to well under 1 metric ton CO2 by 2050. This is 80-95% below the per-capita emissions in developed nations in 2000.

Plane Stupid's polar bear video

This is pretty shocking

Polar bears discuss climate change

FoE cartoon!

Two polar bears muse on whether humans have caused global warming. Call for a strong and fair climate agreement in Copenhagen in December. Take action.

Food futures - strategies for resilient food and farming

Soil Assocation publishes a new report - Food Futures - strategies for resilient food and farming

Our current food systems are precarious and vulnerable to external ‘shocks’. A combination of one or more external factors, such as extreme weather conditions, global conflict or trade disputes could easily disrupt the continuity of food supplies unless we make fundamental changes to the way we farm, process, distribute and eat our food over the next 20 years. That’s the stark message behind this new report from the Soil Association which outlines what it believes should be a blueprint for a more sustainable approach to food and farming

Strategies for a food secure future
A clear vision for food and farming: business-as-usual is unrealistic; a stategic food plan is needed across all levels of UK governments and wide ranging partnership is required to form a solution.

Climate change: higher mandatory targets required for agriculture to cut emissions; make the minimisation of soil carbon losses a condition of subsidy and incentivise carbon storage.

Energy use and resource-use efficiency: increase R&D funding for sustainable farming practices; farmers advisory programme for reducing oil, gas and phosphate-derived inputs and declare the British Isles a GM-free zone.

Healthy and sustainable diets: link healthy diets with a sustainable food system; support our 'Food for Life' catering standards and establish studies on the benefits of healthier food.

Build resilience through re-localising staple food production: planning policy to help increase self-sufficiency and reduce food miles; regional and local authorities need strategies on food security and UK and EU barriers to localisation need removing.

Re-skilling: training and apprenticeship programmes in sustainable agriculture; Local Authority provision for community 'growing belts' and allotments and give every school child experience of food growing and production through the Food for Life Partnership.

International trade and development: work with the WTO and international governments on food secure trade policy and encourage international implementation of the principles in the 2008 IAASTD report on food security and climate change.

Download the full report here

Meat under fire

Two reports have emerged this week encouraging us to eat less meat as a way of reducing our greenhouse gas emissions and thereby mitigating the effects of climate change.

First came Lord Stern, the climate change guru economist urging us to reduce the amount of meat in our diets.

Then in a paper published by a respected US thinktank, the Worldwatch Institute, two World Bank environmental advisers claim that instead of 18 per cent of global emissions being caused by meat, the true figure is 51 per cent.

A consensus is perhaps beginning to build - elsewhere for example Simon Fairlie writing in The Land magazine has concluded that Britain can feed itself as long as we reduce substantially the amount of meat in our diet.

Environmental arguments backing health arguments.

However meat production will never completely disappear - I work on Dartmoor, and the uplands of the country along with thousands of miles of marginal land along our coasts are only suitable for grazing animals. So farming in these areas will inevitably be livestock based thereby conserving ecological habitats, much loved landscapes and the cultural way of life of those who farm these areas.

In other parts of the country a switch to a more vegetable / cereal based diet should improve our health and also reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Expect a huge row of vested interests to erupt over the coming months.

The Age of Stupid

This is a must see film - now out on DVD

The Age of Stupid Trailer March 20th VSn 2009 HD (Bleeped) from Age of Stupid on Vimeo.

Greenpeace - Not Stupid

This video was created by Greenpeace for the Copenhagen screening of the Global Premiere of The Age of Stupid.

Not Stupid - Greenpeace event time-lapse Graffiti video from Karuna Møller on Vimeo.

Blackout - coal, climate and the last energy crisis

Richard Heinberg, the author of The Party's over and Peak Everything has published his latest book - Blackout. Richard is best known for his analysis of oil depletion better known as 'peak oil' and the implications this has for society. His ideas have been incorporated as a central tenet of the Transition Movement in this country.

His latest book in effect looks at peak coal. My perceived wisdom on this was that whilst oil was 'running' out quickly there was plenty of coal and the challenge for society was how to decarbonisation the global economy by getting off coal before we irreversibly trashed the climate.

Apparently it is not this simple, whilst there is indeed a great deal of coal left on the planet, much of it is very inaccessible and therefore will never be mined. The book reviews coal reserves around the world. Coal peak in the US may be around 2025 whilst coal peak in China could be within 10 years which if true would grind their economy to a catastrophic halt.

Indeed when you combine peak oil and peak coal 'the worst scenarios for carbon emissions will not be realised'. This is because the biggest constraint on expanding coal supplies is transport which is reliant on oil. This isn't to say that cutting carbon emissions is a waste of time as peak oil and peak coal will do it for us - the reality is that stabilising the carbon emissions at 450-550ppm will probably trigger catastrophic climate change anyway via various tipping point events. We need to cut emissions and hope that peak oil and peak coal bring carbon levels down to 350ppm - just as Jim Hansen and the 350 campaign have argued.

This is a good book and one worth reading - especially if you think that combating climate change is the only game in town.

It is yet another piece in the jigsaw which should focus politicians on the Road of Copenhagen. If you feel overwhelmed - why not sign up to the 10:10 campaign - cut your own emissions by 10% in 2010 - actions speak louder than words.

10 10

A new campaign has been launched for indivuals, businesses and schools - the idea is that they make a pledge to cut CO2 emmissions by 10% in 2010.

Click here for details and how you can support the fight against climate change.

The campaign is getting strong political support - see here.

George Monbiot's commentary is also very interesting - he's being very positive!

The Convenient solution - Greenpeace renewables film

Greenpeace's Big If against Kingsnorth

Say NO to dirty coal: take the Big If pledge from Greenpeace UK on Vimeo.

Future of food

George Alagiah has just presented this brilliant BBC2 documentary called the Future of Food. It integrates all the issues from global population, peak oil, peak soil, peak, local food everything through to sustainability, virtual water, farming methods, food production etc etc. It is a must watch programme.

It is available on the BBC iPlayer

Episode 1
Episode 2
Episode 3

Try and find the time to watch it

What Comes After Conservation?

Readers may be interested in this thought provoking article by Alex Hunt, Head of Foresight.

The National Trust has a seemingly rare attribute in modern society in having both a desire and capability to think and act for the long-term. Words and phrases with connotations of the long-term - like “in perpetuity”, “forever”, “enduring” and “endowment” - infuse our language. When it comes to nature conservation, we are able to be deliberately long-term in our effort. Few others are afforded this necessary luxury.

Yet the future for which we are planning for today will not offer us an unchanging terrain. We know this from our past. During the lifetime of the National Trust we have experienced two World Wars, seen the transition from the coal to nuclear age, witnessed the UK population grow exponentially, seen the tentative first few metres of flight be transformed into space exploration, and the communications revolution take us from Marconi to Microsoft. The consequential environmental quake which has followed all this change has made us recognise that we have well and truly moved from the Holocene into the Anthropocene.

It is therefore timely, as we rush headlong towards the final year of the first decade of the 21st Century – and having tasted what this Century might have in store - to ask ourselves two long-term questions:
1) What might we anticipate as the forces which will shape the natural environment across the 21st Century?
2) What might this mean for our approach to nature conservation, in the context of our mission of looking after special places, both now and in the future?

Anticipating 21st Century Forces for Change
The advice of an early American colonial almanac wisely reminds us that “to this all predictions do belong, that either they are right, or they are wrong”. I therefore offer some cautious ‘anticipations’ of the possible shape of things to come:

Global resource challenges are likely to be more strongly felt in UK landscape than ever before: a triumvirate of resource challenges, of energy, water and food will collide in the coming decades with the forces of population growth and a changing climate. This will introduce increasing pressures on landscapes in our care, and the underlying dynamics of the wider natural environment in which they sit.

Such resource pressures may increase public recognition of the importance of the ecosystem services which underpin daily life, and also accelerate innovations which help us live with limited resources. We may move from a cradle to grave economy (based on mining, making, buying, binning which we will not be able to afford) to a cradle to cradle economy (based on a continuous cycle of biological and industrial ‘nutrients’ in which there is no ‘waste’). Yet the potential is high for our growing resource demands to outstrip the needed investments in environmental innovation and nature’s capital.

Bio and nano-sciences will bring untold understanding, powers, opportunities and risks, within reach: as we increase our knowledge of nature at the genetic level, and of materials at the nano-scale, we will eventually see a convergence of these technologies. In the short term, we should not be surprised if we see wider and sometimes surprising application of Genetically Modified Organisms and new technologies (for example in efforts to increase productivity of biofuels, in producing animal feeds, in pharmaceutical GMOs, in monitoring and managing environment quality (e.g. through nanosensors, etc) or in remediation of environmental problems such as pollution. We will though see increasing concern about a lag in a coherent and consistent regulatory framework to manage risks from emerging and novel GMO and nano technologies.

We will face a growing challenge and new phenomenon in how humans connect with the natural world: as we see a growth in the urbanity of many people’s lives, we should not be surprised if we see a continuing disconnection with wildlife amongst parts of the population. This may be amplified by increasing competition for attention from the hyperreality offered by other experiences in daily urban life and leisure. Paradoxically new communication and media technologies, such as augmented reality, might start to provide a window on the natural world in ways which many people will have not been able to experience before. But urbanisation of people’s lives will predominantly serve to increase the disparity between environmental ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’.

Climate change will converge with other environmental, social and economic challenges: the interplay between climate and the wider environment will greatly rise in significance, so that we rapidly move beyond seeing climate change as a discrete challenge to one which touches and is integrated into every part of the environment and economy. There will be very positive opportunities for us to find ‘win wins’ in facing the challenge of climate change, i.e. finding solutions around land use which foster other benefits beyond addressing climate change alone. But we will have to accept that there will be sizeable knock-on impacts on the dynamics of the natural environment which will be difficult to manage.

Facing the 21st Century Conservation Challenge
This landscape of change presents a new set of nature conservation challenges for the National Trust. To succeed we will need to...
- continue to move beyond our organisational legacy of excellence in conserving ‘islands’ or ‘hot spots’ of biodiversity. We will need to become world leaders in actively supporting the functional and dynamic environmental systems and networks in which the special places for which we care are located.
- continue to build wider partnerships for nature conservation to increase our capability and effectiveness.
- adopt a broader set of conservation strategic tools within the National Trust – in particular, carefully considering the effectiveness of acquisition as a tool for nature conservation versus other options to secure conservation outcomes.
- focus increasingly on the significance of genetic adaptation and adaptability in our approach to conservation of plant and animal species.
- continue to positively engage with emerging technologies, achieving a careful balance between harnessing bio and nano innovations which support environmental conservation benefits, and being rigorous in understanding the full range of potential risks.
- finding ways to engage people and strengthen public support for a philosophy of nature conservation as embracing change (and an endeavour which is now as much about creation as well as restoration of nature’s capital)
- better recognise the environmental disparities between different parts of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

We have of course been aware of many of the growing challenges ahead and have been evolving our approach for some time. In many places the National Trust has already put a ‘beyond our boundaries’ philosophy for nature conservation productively to work. So the arguments above are not necessarily new. But it is clear that we will need to dramatically evolve our approach in the years ahead if we are to successfully face the longer-term challenges for nature which we can anticipate today.

CO2 and population growth

I came across this on a blog Skepecology from one of my old colleagues Chris Gerrard. It is an animation showing population growth and CO2 emissions across the globe, pretty frightening....

The Road to Copenhagen

On the 26th June the Department of Energy and Climate Change launched their document 'The Road to Copenhagen'. The introduction states the following:

"In December 2009, Denmark will host a major United Nations conference in Copenhagen. At this conference, a meaningful global agreement must be reached to tackle climate change for when the current Kyoto protocol - governing reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases - expires in 2012.

Climate change is a global threat, and Copenhagen represents our best opportunity yet to tackle it effectively. The UK Government is aiming to reach an ambitious agreement at Copenhagen, supported by effective domestic action. Together with our EU partners we have already made a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2020, with an offer to reduce emissions by 30% if an ambitious global deal is agreed. "

The UK document is very closely based on the Stern Review which commissioned by the UK Treasury and published in 2007. This is a document all about the economics of climate change and it is hard going! However Nicholas Stern has fortunately published a book this year entitled 'A blueprint for a safer planet' which summaries the Review in layman's terms. This book is pretty hard work but the effort is definitely worth it.

It makes the case for global cuts in emissions by 2050 of 50% - argues why the developed countries need to cut by 80%. It sets out how the cap and trade system would work and why it would be effective.

It sets out how a global fund is needed to stop deforestation and why technologies to combat change must be shared. In addition he makes the strong link between solving climate change and solving global poverty.

I was left with the feeling that there is a plan which would work - this is the plan essentially in the DECC document but my goodness it is complex and needs the whole world to pull together and make it work rather than playing brinkmanship politics. The challenge of Copenhagen.

The Transition Timeline

The Transition Timeline for a local resilient future by Shaun Chamberlin published by Green Books

This is the second book to emerge from the Transition Network, the first being, Rob Hopkin’s essential read the Transition Handbook. For people unfamiliar with the Transition Network it is basically a grass roots movement in which local communities prepare themselves for a future without oil in a changing climate.

Transition Timeline follows on from the Handbook.

The book is divided into five parts.

Part 1 deals with visions for the future and cultural stories. 4 visions are presented: Denial which is the business as usual model; Hitting the Wall which is business as usual but at least you know there is a problem; the Impossible Dream – fighting climate change but forgetting that oil is running out and finally the Transition Vision which accepts and responds to the challenges of climate change and peak oil.

Part 2 of the book looks in more detail at the Transition Vision by examining issues such as population and demographics; food and water; electricity and energy; travel and transport and finally health and medicine. This is radical stuff but unlike so many ‘environmental’ books it paints change as a positive and achievable goal.

Part 3 is written by Rob Hopkins and examines how to use and create Timelines. In a nutshell communities are encouraged to paint a positive vision of how their world might be in a post peak oil world and a world where mitigation against climate change is in full flow. The Timeline is then a backcast of the series of detailed actions that need to be taken over a 20 year period to achieve the vision.

Part 4 is a detailed summary of the science and politics of climate change and oil depletion. This is very up to date and readable – a very good introduction.

Part 5 concludes the book by putting the issues discussed in part 4 into a UK context. The peak oil and the UK section is pretty frightening and would motivate most to take action if they knew about it!

A great book and one you should read. Get it from here.

UK Climate Projections 09

The waiting is over and today saw DEFRA publish the UK Climate Projections. There is a comprehensive introductory website and a more detailed technical one where the data can be manipulated to meet the users needs. The Guardian summarises the headline findings: warmer drier summers and wetter winters along with many more extreme weather events, as follows.

The introduction to the project states

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) give climate information for the UK up to the end of this century. Projections of future changes to our climate are provided, based on simulations from climate models.

The purpose of providing information on the possible future climate is to help those needing to plan how they will adapt to help society and the natural environment to cope with a changing climate.

The Projections show three different scenarios representing high, medium and low greenhouse gas scenarios – and and this can help to demonstrate the importance of reducing our greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation).

The data is presented in a variety of ways but maps perhaps show the projections most clearly.

The website states the following

These maps give a range of climate that we might expect, together with the probability of different outcomes based on the strength of evidence. The central estimate is given by the centre map. The changes are very unlikely to be less than the left hand map, and very unlikely to be more than the right hand map.

Click here to see the maps for summer and winter precipitation along with summer temperature which demonstrates the above explanation.

You will need to spend some time playing with the technical website to find out exactly what data it can produce for either the whole country, a region or a 25km grid square. There are many climate variables. Without doubt this is a major step forwards in probabilistic modelling and the UK must now have the best dataset of any country in the world about what is likely to happen as a result of climate change.

Many many organisations will now start using this data to prepare for the future - the UKCP09 website gives a few simple case studies which highlights various applications.

The critical thing that is needed now is action. David King, the former government chief scientist asks whether there will be the political will to act. Watch this space!

How many tonnes of CO2 in the atmoshere

Visit this website and watch how CO2 levels in the atmosphere are rising in front of your very eyes. Data compiled by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Hydro electric power on Dartmoor

The National Trust hosted a hydro electric seminar at Shaugh Prior on 13th May with representatives from a number of organisations including the Dartmoor National Park Authority, the Environmental Agency, Natural England, DARE and South West Water. In addition a number of hydro developers and consultants also attended.
The point of the meeting was to discuss issues such as river abstraction licences, wildlife, landscape and archaeological issues which might stop potential micro hydro schemes progressing.

As a society we need to be producing much more of our energy from renewable resources - indeed the Government target is 15% of our energy from renewables by 2015. In addition the National Park Authority want to see an additional 1.5mW of energy produced on Dartmoor from hydro by 2012. The National Trust wishes to become energy neutral in Devon and Cornwall.

Although putting schemes together is often complex and rather bureaucratic there are a number of examples now where the specials needs of Dartmoor, it wildlife and landscape can be protected whilst still allowing small scale hydro schemes to progress. Future schemes will also have to ensure that the special character of Dartmoor is not compromised. The meeting concluded that this can be done as long as all the relevant bodies work closely together and share best practice.

Heathrow and the Greenpeace land

The TV impressionist Alastair McGowan has bought a piece of the Heathrow third runway site along with Emma Thompson, Zac Goldsmith and Greenpeace.

If you want, you can be put on the deeds at no cost to yourself.

Follow the link for more details

http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/climate/airplot

David Bellamy's low point

This is the footage of the classic encounter between David Bellamy and George Monbiot on Channel 4 News in 2005.

Cringe making.

Press here to watch it.

January 09 Podcast

This is my first attempt at podcasting!

Download my January podcast by pressing the title of this blog i.e. January 09 Podcast- it last about 9 minutes.

Comments welcome.

Heathrow runway three and peak oil

So the Government has given the go ahead for a third runway at Heathrow. Lots of protest and lots of support.

Most of the protest centres around noise, air quality and carbon dioxide emissions - important considerations, the last one particularly if we are to achieve 80% cuts in CO2 by 2050.

Perhaps though the most obvious problem with the plan is being ignored - that of peak oil. A recent report The Oil Crunch - featured on this blog here suggested that we might see supply side problems in the UK as early as 20011/12. With supply problems come oil price hikes and with that the whole financial model for the third runway falls apart.

For me, it is inconceivable that the growth in flying will continue much longer - by the time the third runway is built in 10 years time, aviation will be in decline as oil prices make flying unattainable for most people.

Would be much better to invest the £7B investment in green renewable technologies.

Google and CO2

Alex Wissner-Gross, a Harvard academic has claimed that a typical Google search on a desktop computer produces about 7g CO2 - two search equal the same CO2 emissions as boiling a kettle. How? Google runs a lot of servers which use a lot of electricity.

For a fuller account see the BBC website here.

ExxonMobil calls for green taxes

ExxonMobil is the world's largest oil company and for years it has downplayed the role that fossils fuels have played in affecting the climate. Indeed the company has funded many organisation involved in global warming denial.

Now the boss of Exxon Roy Tillerson has come out and called for a carbon tax. This no doubt reflects the new politics emerging in the US with Obama's Presidency just days away.

Others have suggested that asking for a carbon tax is less damaging to the oil industry than carbon caps which form the European 'cap and trade' schemes.