Porn. Peak oil. Enjoy

The most popular viral on peak oil ever!

Lloyds and Chatham House on peak oil

Lloyds, the insurance underwriters and Chatham House, the international think tank have collaborated to produce a new report called Sustainable Energy Security: strategic risks and opportunities for business. Note this is Lloyds of London - not FoE - perhaps should now be Transition Lloyds? - incredible

The summary lists 7 main points

1. Businesses which prepare for and take advantage of the new energy reality will prosper – failure to do so could be catastrophicNB this is Lloyds of London (to be renamed Transition Lloyds perhaps?) not FoE - incredible.

2. Market dynamics and environmental factors mean business can no longer rely on low cost traditional energy sources

3. China and growing Asian economies will play an increasingly important role in global energy security

4. We are heading towards a global oil supply crunch and price spike

5. Energy infrastructure will become increasingly vulnerable as a result of climate change and operations in harsher environments

6. Lack of global regulation on climate change is creating an environment of uncertainty for business, which is damaging investment plans

7. To manage increasing energy costs and carbon exposure businesses must reduce fossil fuel consumption

8. Business must address energy-related risks to supply chains and the increasing vulnerability of ‘just-in-time’ models

9. Investment in renewable energy and ‘intelligent’ infrastructure is booming. This revolution presents huge opportunities for new business partnerships

BP's oil supply and demand predictions......

Oil spill and credit crunch bad - oil crunch much worse - see what BP thinks about future oil supply - see what Jeremy Leggett thinks of that

Post Copenhagen -its down to us

Richard Heinberg - the Peak Everything guru has written a great post Copenhagen blog - it is well worth a read - at end end of the day after after the demos and the politics it is down to us locally - politicians wont ever deliver - they cant!

The Political Ecology of Collapse

John Michael Greer is a great writer about the post industrial era. He has put a three part essay on his blog - The Political Ecology of Collapse - well worth reading

Failure is the only option (part 1)
Weishaupt’s Fallacy (part 2)
The Bomb at the Heart of the System (part 3)

He has also written a couple of great books
The Long Descent
and
Ecotechnic future

Blackout - coal, climate and the last energy crisis

Richard Heinberg, the author of The Party's over and Peak Everything has published his latest book - Blackout. Richard is best known for his analysis of oil depletion better known as 'peak oil' and the implications this has for society. His ideas have been incorporated as a central tenet of the Transition Movement in this country.

His latest book in effect looks at peak coal. My perceived wisdom on this was that whilst oil was 'running' out quickly there was plenty of coal and the challenge for society was how to decarbonisation the global economy by getting off coal before we irreversibly trashed the climate.

Apparently it is not this simple, whilst there is indeed a great deal of coal left on the planet, much of it is very inaccessible and therefore will never be mined. The book reviews coal reserves around the world. Coal peak in the US may be around 2025 whilst coal peak in China could be within 10 years which if true would grind their economy to a catastrophic halt.

Indeed when you combine peak oil and peak coal 'the worst scenarios for carbon emissions will not be realised'. This is because the biggest constraint on expanding coal supplies is transport which is reliant on oil. This isn't to say that cutting carbon emissions is a waste of time as peak oil and peak coal will do it for us - the reality is that stabilising the carbon emissions at 450-550ppm will probably trigger catastrophic climate change anyway via various tipping point events. We need to cut emissions and hope that peak oil and peak coal bring carbon levels down to 350ppm - just as Jim Hansen and the 350 campaign have argued.

This is a good book and one worth reading - especially if you think that combating climate change is the only game in town.

It is yet another piece in the jigsaw which should focus politicians on the Road of Copenhagen. If you feel overwhelmed - why not sign up to the 10:10 campaign - cut your own emissions by 10% in 2010 - actions speak louder than words.

Future of food

George Alagiah has just presented this brilliant BBC2 documentary called the Future of Food. It integrates all the issues from global population, peak oil, peak soil, peak, local food everything through to sustainability, virtual water, farming methods, food production etc etc. It is a must watch programme.

It is available on the BBC iPlayer

Episode 1
Episode 2
Episode 3

Try and find the time to watch it

Heathrow runway three and peak oil

So the Government has given the go ahead for a third runway at Heathrow. Lots of protest and lots of support.

Most of the protest centres around noise, air quality and carbon dioxide emissions - important considerations, the last one particularly if we are to achieve 80% cuts in CO2 by 2050.

Perhaps though the most obvious problem with the plan is being ignored - that of peak oil. A recent report The Oil Crunch - featured on this blog here suggested that we might see supply side problems in the UK as early as 20011/12. With supply problems come oil price hikes and with that the whole financial model for the third runway falls apart.

For me, it is inconceivable that the growth in flying will continue much longer - by the time the third runway is built in 10 years time, aviation will be in decline as oil prices make flying unattainable for most people.

Would be much better to invest the £7B investment in green renewable technologies.

Peak oil and Local Authorities

Oil Depletion Analysis Centre and the Post carbon Institute have produced a useful booklet entitled Prearing for Peak oil: local authorities and the energy crisis. It can be download free of charge from here.

The book has been reviewed by Rob Hopkins on the Transition Culture website.

The Oil Crunch

The Oil Crunch is a report just published by 8 of the UK's leading companies (Virgin, Scottish and Southern Energy, Stagecoach, Arup, Foster and partners, Yahoo, First and Solarcentury).

In essence they believe that we face an imminent crisis arising from oil supply in the UK - this might occur as early as 2011. This is a quote from the Executive summary.

Currently, it seems to us, the government places climate change as first priority for policy making, followed by energy security, with peak oil (if it is viewed as a problem at all) in last place. In our view the more serious short-term climate-change impacts – substantial as they will be – will not be the first to wash over our economy. Peak-oil impacts are more likely to arrive first, with 2011-13 being a worryingly early candidate window based on the evidence in Opinion A. The core priorities we think the country faces are the reverse of the government’s current thinking.

This is a serious report with a foreword by Lord Oxburgh, former chair of Shell -

Currently, it seems to us, the government places climate change as first priority for policy making, followed by energy security, with peak oil(if it is viewed as a problem at all) in last place. In our view the more serious short-term climate-change impacts – substantial as they will be – will not be the first to wash over our economy. Peak-oil impacts are more likely to arrive first, with 2011-13 being a worryingly early candidate window based on the evidence in Opinion A. The core priorities we think the country faces are the reverse of the government’s current thinking.

The full report can be downloaded here. A summary from the Arp website can e viewed here and media report is contained in the Guardian.

For me this is one of the most worrying reports I have read - it is not written by environmentalists but by industrialists. They are basically saying that we have ignored the issue of peak oil and in all likelihood the inpacts will be felt in Britain within 5 years - we will be unprepared for the consequences.

Richard Heinberg’s The Party’s over oil, war and the fate of industrial societies

Well , I’ve finally got around to reading this book. I have been aware of the message for a long time but I can say it has really been worth while reading the detail.

In essence the book warns that oil production is about to peak and as a result massive changes will reverberate throughout the world. Indeed the future of industrialisation and globalisation is unsustainable.

The book is divided into 6 chapters.

Chapter 1 reviews the laws of physics, energy in ecology and the role of energy in former dominant civilisations. The key point in the latter example is that that former civilisations (e.g. Myas, Minoans, Greeks & Romans) collapsed because their energy budgets collapsed.

Chapter 2 looks at the rise of energy use from medieval times to the present - the rise of wood through coal to oil.

Chapter 3 describes the concept of peak oil – i.e. oil is a non –renewable resource . It details the work of Hubbert and describes why his work is so important.

Chapter 4 assesses whether renewable sources of energy can replace the oil based alternatives – they can’t and the book describes why.

Chapter 5 entitled “A banquet of consequences” describes what the impacts on modern society of the peaking of oil. It is profoundly and deeply worrying.

Chapter 6 is a much more positive piece of writing giving hope of what can be done at the individual, community and national levels in preparing for the transition from oil to renewables and a different lifestyle.

The book is a really important contribution to the changes society needs to make in the light of diminishing oil resources. It is a useful additional information source to the bulk of climate change literature. It makes it plain that climate change policy cannot be seen in isolation from peak oil issues.

This book is in no large part responsible for the Transition Movement in the UK which started in Totnes, Devon earlier this century.

The book is a brilliant analysis of politics, geopolitics, geology, sociology, ecology and economics. Essential reading – I urge you to read it and get your elected politicians and senior managers to do the same.

Peak oil theory in the main stream

New Scientist Magazine (28th June 2008) contains a six page article on peak oil and the consequences. Well worth a read. First time I have seen a peak oil in the 'main stream' opposed to green magazines.

When will it filter through into policy? Maybe government cant cope with climate change and peak oil at the same time?

Very rude but pertinent

A Greenpeace viral about oil, US, UK energy policy.

Not for the easily offended though .....

http://www.feelfilms.co.uk/smiths/index.html

You have been warned

The end of oil?

Everybody knows that one day we will run out of oil. The trouble is that the consequences for society will happen far sooner than the time when the last drop of the stuff has been used up.

The theory of Peak Oil states that once peak (or maximum) production levels of oil has been reached the price of oil will rise dramatically causing untold economic problems for the world. This is simply the basic laws of supply and demand. Demand for oil is ever increasing especially as the 'developing' world is becoming more 'Westernised'. Many oil economists now saw we have reached 'peak oil' i.e. from now on the rate of oil production will decline.

There is compelling evidence that peak oil is either happening or will happen in the next few years. This is a big big problem. Demand is massively increasing whilst supply will start (or has started) to decrease. The result is escalating oil prices and detrimentally impacted economies.

I hear you say now we have to worry about peak oil and climate change - well the two are inextricably linked - it is the burning of all the oil and gas that has caused climate change!

If you want to read up more about peak oil there are loads of web sites and books - I can recommend the following:-

Web sites

The wolf at the door

The Hubbert Peak for World Oil

The Coming Global Oil Crisis

Books

Beyond Oil

The Party's over

However I really believe that the end of world is NOT nigh - we can do something about it if we act now. For example the Transition Movement is a grass roots movement actively trying to address these problems by planning for a future without oil. There are Transition Towns, counties and indeed countries working on this right now - so join in!!

We Transition Penwith as a good example of how you can take control rather than just being a victim.

I really recommend that you do join in because the UK is particularly vulnerable - North Sea Oil has already peaked and being an island means we are on the end of the supply train. Some say the economic and political impact will have bitten really deep in Britain by 2020 - the lights may have started to go out by then .....