Post Copenhagen -its down to us

Richard Heinberg - the Peak Everything guru has written a great post Copenhagen blog - it is well worth a read - at end end of the day after after the demos and the politics it is down to us locally - politicians wont ever deliver - they cant!

Copenhagen diagnosis

This new report has been produced ahead of the Copenhagen climate meeting in December to update politicians and the media on climate science that has been published since the IPCC (AR4) report in 2006. You can download the report here. The most significant recent climate change findings are:

Surging greenhouse gas emissions: Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were nearly 40% higher than those in 1990. Even if global emission rates are stabilized at present-day levels, just 20 more years of emissions would give a 25% probability that warming exceeds 2°C, even with zero emissions after 2030. Every year of delayed action increases the
chances of exceeding 2°C warming.

Recent global temperatures demonstrate human-induced warming: Over the past 25 years temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.19°C per decade, in very good agreement with predictions based on greenhouse gas increases. Even over the past ten years, despite a decrease in solar forcing, the trend continues to be one of warming. Natural, short-term fluctuations are
occurring as usual, but there have been no significant changes in the underlying warming trend.

Acceleration of melting of ice-sheets, glaciers and ice-caps: A wide array of satellite and ice measurements now demonstrate beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and ice-caps in other parts of the world has also accelerated since 1990.

Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline: Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models. The area of sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models.

Current sea-level rise underestimated: Satellites show recent global average sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past 15 years) to be ~80% above past IPCC predictions. This acceleration in sea-level rise is consistent with a doubling in contribution from melting of glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice-sheets.

Sea-level predictions revised: By 2100, global sea-level is likely to rise at least twice as much as projected by Working Group 1 of the IPCC AR4; for unmitigated emissions it may well exceed 1 meter. The upper limit has been estimated as ~ 2 meters sea level rise by 2100. Sea level will continue to rise for centuries after global temperatures have been stabilized, and several meters of sea level rise must be expected over the next few centuries.

Delay in action risks irreversible damage: Several vulnerable elements in the climate system (e.g. continental ice-sheets, Amazon rainforest, West African monsoon and others) could be pushed towards abrupt or irreversible change if warming continues in a business-as-usual way throughout this century. The risk of transgressing critical thresholds (“tipping points”)
increases strongly with ongoing climate change. Thus waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized.

The turning point must come soon: If global warming is to be limited to a maximum of 2 °C above pre-industrial values, global emissions need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly. To stabilize climate, a decarbonized global society – with near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases – needs to be reached well within this century. More
specifically, the average annual per-capita emissions will have to shrink to well under 1 metric ton CO2 by 2050. This is 80-95% below the per-capita emissions in developed nations in 2000.

Blackout - coal, climate and the last energy crisis

Richard Heinberg, the author of The Party's over and Peak Everything has published his latest book - Blackout. Richard is best known for his analysis of oil depletion better known as 'peak oil' and the implications this has for society. His ideas have been incorporated as a central tenet of the Transition Movement in this country.

His latest book in effect looks at peak coal. My perceived wisdom on this was that whilst oil was 'running' out quickly there was plenty of coal and the challenge for society was how to decarbonisation the global economy by getting off coal before we irreversibly trashed the climate.

Apparently it is not this simple, whilst there is indeed a great deal of coal left on the planet, much of it is very inaccessible and therefore will never be mined. The book reviews coal reserves around the world. Coal peak in the US may be around 2025 whilst coal peak in China could be within 10 years which if true would grind their economy to a catastrophic halt.

Indeed when you combine peak oil and peak coal 'the worst scenarios for carbon emissions will not be realised'. This is because the biggest constraint on expanding coal supplies is transport which is reliant on oil. This isn't to say that cutting carbon emissions is a waste of time as peak oil and peak coal will do it for us - the reality is that stabilising the carbon emissions at 450-550ppm will probably trigger catastrophic climate change anyway via various tipping point events. We need to cut emissions and hope that peak oil and peak coal bring carbon levels down to 350ppm - just as Jim Hansen and the 350 campaign have argued.

This is a good book and one worth reading - especially if you think that combating climate change is the only game in town.

It is yet another piece in the jigsaw which should focus politicians on the Road of Copenhagen. If you feel overwhelmed - why not sign up to the 10:10 campaign - cut your own emissions by 10% in 2010 - actions speak louder than words.

CO2 and population growth

I came across this on a blog Skepecology from one of my old colleagues Chris Gerrard. It is an animation showing population growth and CO2 emissions across the globe, pretty frightening....

UK Climate Projections 09

The waiting is over and today saw DEFRA publish the UK Climate Projections. There is a comprehensive introductory website and a more detailed technical one where the data can be manipulated to meet the users needs. The Guardian summarises the headline findings: warmer drier summers and wetter winters along with many more extreme weather events, as follows.

The introduction to the project states

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) give climate information for the UK up to the end of this century. Projections of future changes to our climate are provided, based on simulations from climate models.

The purpose of providing information on the possible future climate is to help those needing to plan how they will adapt to help society and the natural environment to cope with a changing climate.

The Projections show three different scenarios representing high, medium and low greenhouse gas scenarios – and and this can help to demonstrate the importance of reducing our greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation).

The data is presented in a variety of ways but maps perhaps show the projections most clearly.

The website states the following

These maps give a range of climate that we might expect, together with the probability of different outcomes based on the strength of evidence. The central estimate is given by the centre map. The changes are very unlikely to be less than the left hand map, and very unlikely to be more than the right hand map.

Click here to see the maps for summer and winter precipitation along with summer temperature which demonstrates the above explanation.

You will need to spend some time playing with the technical website to find out exactly what data it can produce for either the whole country, a region or a 25km grid square. There are many climate variables. Without doubt this is a major step forwards in probabilistic modelling and the UK must now have the best dataset of any country in the world about what is likely to happen as a result of climate change.

Many many organisations will now start using this data to prepare for the future - the UKCP09 website gives a few simple case studies which highlights various applications.

The critical thing that is needed now is action. David King, the former government chief scientist asks whether there will be the political will to act. Watch this space!

How many tonnes of CO2 in the atmoshere

Visit this website and watch how CO2 levels in the atmosphere are rising in front of your very eyes. Data compiled by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

David Bellamy's low point

This is the footage of the classic encounter between David Bellamy and George Monbiot on Channel 4 News in 2005.

Cringe making.

Press here to watch it.

Climate Safety

This new report from the Public Interest Research Centre brings the science of climate change up to date since the publication of the IPCC AR4 reports - although these were only published last year they were based on peer reviewed science which was 5 years old. Climate Safety updates - particularly on Arctic Ice Melt and carbon sink effectiveness.

Their report can be downloaded here.

The foreword is written by Sir John Houghton - co-chair of the IPCC and former DG of the Met Office. He states "I wish to commend the authors of the Climate Safety report for their carefully researched assessment of the climate future, the severity of its likely impacts as currently understood and the urgent demands that are made on both global and national action. They point out the 2°C target as currently pursued will almost certainly turn out to be inadequate and will soon need to be substantially strengthened."

The main conclusion of the report is that as climate change is occurring much quicker than originally predicted, in order to maintain global temperature increases below 2 degrees C CO2 levels will have to be stabilised at 300ppm and not the 450-550ppm recommended by the Committee on Climate Change or in the Stern Report.

The report concludes with a series of required actions.

An important read.

Mark Lynas - author of Six Degree said the following of the report “Climate Safety plainly shows us that we need to inject a sense of urgency into the debate about how we respond to climate change. It’s not about gradually reducing emissions any more, it’s about recognising the risks we face and cutting our emissions to zero as quickly as possible.”

George Monbiot, Guardian columnist said “You cannot overstate the importance of this report: it has opened my eyes to levels of climate risk far beyond those of which I was aware. Crisp, clear-headed and profoundly shocking, this report should be read immediately by everyone who cares.”

One Shot Left

George Monbiot's latest offering in the Guardian is the most gloomy thing I have read about climate change ever

He has based his conclusions on the recent findings of Jim Hansen the NASA climate specialist. Hansen assets that 350ppm is the safe level of CO2 in the atmosphere (we are currently above 380ppm) and anything above that could lead to rapid catastrophic climate change across the globe.

Monbiot also refers to the work of the Public Interest Research Centre who are holding a conference on the topic on Thursday 27th Nov.

The science has moved on rapidly from the 2007 IPCC reports, ice sheets melting much more rapidly, methane venting from the tundra etc etc etc.

It is obviously time to act (80% by 2050) but have we left it too late.......

Gloomy, Monbiot, may be but One Shot Left is essential reading.

Methane levels up -but why?

There is a useful information article on the Carbon Commentary web site on rising methane levels.

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and recent research has shown that it is rising in concentration in the atmosphere.

Research from Royal Holloway College indicated that methane levels were higher over the Arctic leading to the hypothesis that the rising levels were being caused by rotting biological matter in the tundra arising from melting ice.

However more recent work from MIT has shown that methane levels have rising across the globe and not just in the Arctic.

This is important because methane plays a key role in the climate change models and at the moment we don't know exactly why concentrations are increasing. Lets hope its not the start of the positive feedback loop - rising temperatures melt the tundra which releases methane and the eruption of methane from the deep oceans (the clathrate gun hypothesis)

For more details see here. Methane graph copyright of the NOAA

Arctic ice is thinning

A team of scientists from University College London have discovered that the ice sheet around the Arctic is thinning - in places but up to 49cm. As a result the overall volume of ice is decreasing.


This data is on top of other data which has spectacularly shown that the ice sheet is decreasing in area.

More information here.

The hurricane season

The Caribbean and the US are currently being threatened by a tightly packed series of hurricanes and tropical storms. New Orleans has just narrowly escaped a further catastrophe, but the current storms are still massing in the Gulf of Mexico.

A recently published paper in Nature by Professor Elsner concludes that warming oceans are driving stronger hurricanes. In a 2007 Nature paper he concluded that climate change was also increasing the frequency of hurricanes.

The recent hurricane even affected the Democratic Convention where one of the debating topics was the call for increased off shore oil drilling. Ironic in a week when the price of oil dropped significantly because the off shore drilling rigs already in operation in the Gulf of Mexico were spared damage by the hurricane.

Peak oil will cause dramatic oil price hikes - the increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico will cause the same phenomena

Six degrees videos

I recommended Mark Lynas' book Six Degrees in an earlier blog.

Mark has now teamed up with National Geographic Magazine in the States to produce a website along with a series of summary videos of the 6 degrees message. Six individual videos have been produced featuring Mark Lynas and NASA scientist James Hansen. Each video is featured below.

One degree
Two degrees
Three degrees
Four degrees
Five degrees
Six degrees

Good stuff Mark - its all about dripping water on the stone.

A great guy but too depressing

James Lovelock has said we have passed the tipping point so we are all doomed! or as he puts it - enjoy life while you can you can.

I can't accept this - if we act now WE WILL BE OK

Your choice - do nothing or something


SINK OR SWIM
BREATH or SUFFOCATE
SING OR HOWL

6 degrees - read this book

Mark Lynas, in this book sets out to suggest what our future on the earth might be if the global temperature increases by between 1 and 6 degree C. There are individual chapters for 1 degree, 2 degrees etc. All the potential changes from around the world are based on published science. The book is well researched and has been well received by the scientific community. For example there is a favourable review on RealClimate.



The book is pretty frightening - indeed so it should be - a recent conference held in Exeter stated that if the world is to avoid 'catastrophic climate change', global temperature increases need to be kept below 2 degrees C which equates to ensuring that CO2 levels do not rise above between 450-550ppm. We are currently at 380ppm. The following table summaries Mark's book.

This book is a must must read. The aim of the 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050 in the UK Climate Change Bill is supposed to ensure that this country plays it part in ensuring that global temperatures do not rise by more than 2 degrees C. The problem is that since the climate change bill was published last year there is a growing consensus that an 80% cut in CO2 will be needed. If we cant achieve this then you will have read about the consequences in Mark's book first. Buy it here.

Climate change - the facts - the IPCC

If you want to know what the global scientific consensus is on climate change you need to read the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - the IPCC. During 2007 they published 4 major reports giving the science of climate change. It needs to be noted that over 2500 scientists working under the auspices of their national governments produced these reports - the IPCC reports are therefore not the findings of partisan organisations.

The first three reports by the IPCC covers the science of climate change, the impacts of climate change and the mitigation that is required. All reports operate on a global scale. The final report is a synthesis of the previous three reports which has been updated as a result of new research published following the earlier volumes.

All four reports are available free of charge on the IPCC web site and are available as summary or full reports.

Go to the IPCC website to download the fourth assessment reports (AR4). The full reports can be found via the following links

The AR4 Synthesis Report

Working Group I Report "The Physical Science Basis

Group II Report Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Working Group III Report "Mitigation of Climate Change

How to get accurate scientific information on climate change

It can sometimes be hard to know who to believe. Climate change science is very complicated ranging in disciplines from oceanography through astrophysics to atmospheric chemistry to polar research. And then of course there are the skeptics ......

Help is at hand though there is an excellent web site 'RealClimate - climate science from climate scientists' which really helps. There are hundreds of archived blogs which will help you navigate through either controversy or ambiguous media reports or just complicated science.

For example there was a highly mischievous Channel 4 documentary in 2007 - the Great climate Change Swindle which challenged much of the science behind climate change models - how comes vineyards flourished in Britain in Roman times; how comes the CO2 temperature graphs from polar ice cores show temperatures rising before CO2 levels?

Well RealClimate goes into these matters in some detail which will help you argue that climate change is real and is caused by man with any one down the pub!